The nation holds its breath as the first criminal trial of a former president, Donald J. Trump, nears its conclusion in Manhattan. The witness list is winding down, and closing statements could come as early as Tuesday, leading to a pivotal moment in the race as a Manhattan jury prepares to determine whether Trump will campaign this fall as a convicted felon.
The political impact of this historic jury deliberation is uncertain, with experts divided on how the verdict could shape the upcoming election. Mike Murphy, a Republican strategist, noted the erosion of institutional credibility in today’s politics, making the outcome difficult to predict.
While Trump’s base is expected to remain loyal, the response from swing voters and traditional Democratic constituencies remains unclear. Younger, Black, and Hispanic voters, who have shown wavering support for Biden, could be influenced by a guilty verdict.
As the trial reaches its conclusion, Trump’s political playbook is expected to kick into high gear. Whether declaring victory in the case of acquittal or casting doubt on the legitimacy of the prosecution if convicted, Trump’s messaging is likely to follow familiar patterns.
The trial’s lack of live TV coverage has limited its impact on the public, with many voters paying little attention to the proceedings. However, a criminal conviction could still come as a shock to many, with only 35 percent of voters in battleground states seeing it as likely.
Despite the trial’s potential political ramifications, the lack of attention from voters and the confinement of Trump to New York for much of the trial have already taken a toll on his campaign. Republican strategist Mike Murphy noted that Trump’s courthouse appearances have undermined his strongman image, painting him instead as a “caged, defeated animal.”
As the trial draws to a close, the nation waits anxiously for the jury’s decision and the potential impact it could have on the upcoming election. The outcome of this historic trial could shape the course of American politics for years to come.
