The Stock Market Continues to Surge: Historical Data Points to More Gains Ahead
As the stock market continues its strong performance in 2024, historical data suggests that there could be even more gains on the horizon. The S & P 500 has already climbed more than 15% year to date, driven by the artificial intelligence craze and hopes of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
According to data analyzed by CFRA Research’s Sam Stovall, history offers reason for optimism looking forward. In years where the first half of the year was positive for the S & P 500 between 1945 and 2023, the second half brought an average rise of 5.3%. Additionally, in years where the S & P 500 climbed more than 10% in the first six months, it jumped 7.9% in the typical second half.
Furthermore, presidential election years typically bring returns in the second half of the year. Looking at all election years since World War II, the S & P 500 added 0.9% and 2.4% in the average third and fourth quarters, respectively. In presidential election years with a winning first half, the S & P 500 adds 1% in the third quarter and 3.8% in the fourth quarter on average.
Despite the stock market reaching all-time highs this year, some investors are wondering how much farther it can run up. The median market strategist’s forecast implies that the index will end 2024 less than 1% higher than where it closed Thursday, according to CNBC Pro’s exclusive survey.
With the stock market showing no signs of slowing down and historical data pointing to more gains ahead, investors are eagerly watching to see how the rest of the year unfolds.
