In a surprising turn of events, a top non-partisan political handicapper has shifted three key states towards Vice President Kamala Harris in her 2024 election showdown with former President Donald Trump. The Cook Political Report has moved North Carolina from leans Republican to toss up, making it one of seven battlegrounds across the country that will likely determine the outcome of the presidential election.
Former President Barack Obama was the last Democrat to carry North Carolina in the race for the White House back in 2008. Four years ago, Trump narrowly edged President Biden in the state. However, following Biden’s disastrous debate performance against Trump in late June, the former president saw his lead in North Carolina grow to the mid single digits.
After Biden ended his 2024 re-election bid on July 21, and Harris replaced him at the top of the Democrats’ national ticket, the race in North Carolina tightened to a margin-of-error contest. Cook Political Report publisher and editor-in-chief Amy Walter explained the ratings shift by stating that “Trump hasn’t lost political ground since July; instead it’s that Harris has improved on Biden’s vote share by seven points.”
Trump, determined not to let North Carolina slip from his column, has campaigned in the state three times since Biden dropped out of the race. Additionally, the Trump campaign has outspent the Harris campaign in running ads in North Carolina since the president dropped out of the 2024 race. Despite this, the Harris campaign currently has more ad reservations in the state compared to the Trump campaign.
The Cook Political Report now joins another leading non-partisan political handicapper, Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, in classifying North Carolina as a toss up. Walter also made a shift in two competitive presidential election states that the Democrats have reliably won for decades, moving Minnesota and New Hampshire from lean Democrat to likely Democrat.
It seems that the 2024 election is shaping up to be a tight race, with both candidates vying for crucial battleground states. Stay tuned for more updates from the campaign trail as the election draws near.
