Title: The Epic Sat: Could Ordinals Cause a Blockchain Reorg?
Block 840,000 is not just another block in the blockchain; it triggers the Bitcoin halving where the block reward is reduced from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, cutting the amount of BTC mined each day in half. A new market has developed around Ordinals, introducing a rare “epic sat” within the first block of the halving. This article delves into the impact of Ordinals, the potential for a blockchain reorg, and the probabilities of miners pulling off such a feat.
Understanding the Basics of a Reorg:
A reorg occurs when two miners find blocks nearly simultaneously, creating a temporary fork in the blockchain. The network resolves these forks through the longest chain rule, where the chain with more proof-of-work becomes the valid chain. While short reorgs are common, deep reorgs involving many blocks are rare and disruptive.
The Significance of Ordinals:
Ordinals classify sats by rarity, with epic sats being the first sat of each halving epoch. The emergence of Ordinals has led to a growing market around these unique sats, with values assigned based on their rarity. The demand for Ordinals is increasing, with markets and auctions showcasing their value.
Exploring Mining Probabilities:
Using the Poisson distribution, the article models the probability of miners catching up to the chain tip and potentially causing a reorg. Private mining pools have different incentives compared to public pools, making them more likely candidates for attempting a reorg to win the epic sat.
Potential Impact on the Blockchain:
The article discusses the implications of a successful reorg for the first block of the halving, considering the value of the epic sat and the fees from new token protocols. While reorgs are statistically unlikely, the potential rewards may incentivize miners to make a move.
Conclusion:
The probability of a reorg for the epic sat in block 840,000 feels likely given the potential value at stake. Miners will have to weigh the tradeoffs and decide whether to pursue the longest chain or attempt a reorg for the chance to win the epic sat. The article concludes with a code snippet illustrating the calculations for reorg probabilities based on miners’ hash share.
Overall, the article highlights the unique dynamics introduced by Ordinals and the potential for a blockchain reorg driven by the pursuit of the epic sat. As the Bitcoin space continues to evolve, miners face strategic decisions in navigating these new opportunities.
