The AUD/USD pair has started an up leg within its range, facing tough resistance from a cluster of Moving Averages but likely to extend higher in the near future. The pair has been bouncing off the floor of a range formed since the middle of May, indicating a sideways trend that is expected to continue. This suggests that the current up leg, which began on Monday, will probably reach the range highs at around 0.6709.
On the 4-hour chart, AUD/USD is currently meeting resistance from the 50, 100, and 200 Simple Moving Averages. Despite this hindrance, the price is expected to break above the cluster and potentially move towards the range ceiling. A close above 0.6640 would confirm further upside momentum and could lead to a breakout to higher levels.
While the pair remains within the range, it is likely to continue oscillating. A decisive breakout of the range would signal a shift to a more directional trend. Given the prior bullish trend, an upside breakout is slightly more probable. The breakout move is expected to be volatile due to multiple touches of the range highs and lows.
If a decisive break above the range ceiling occurs, a target of 0.6770 is anticipated. Conversely, a break below the range floor would target 0.6521 initially. These targets are determined using the Fibonacci 0.618 ratio method, with a more generous target calculated by extrapolating the full height of the range.
A decisive break would involve a longer-than-average candle closing near its high or low, or three successive candles breaking cleanly through the range boundaries. Traders should monitor price action closely for signs of a breakout in either direction.
Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-price-analysis-moving-up-within-a-range-202406181152
