Former President Donald J. Trump is gaining ground in the swing state of Wisconsin, according to a new bipartisan poll conducted after the presidential debate on June 27. The poll shows Mr. Trump leading President Biden by five percentage points, with 50 percent of likely voters supporting him compared to 45 percent for Mr. Biden.
In a ballot that included third-party candidates, Mr. Trump’s lead widens to six percentage points, with independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. garnering 9 percent of the vote in the state.
Despite Mr. Biden’s trailing numbers, Democratic incumbent Senator Tammy Baldwin is maintaining a strong lead in her race against Republican challenger Eric Hovde, with 50 percent of likely voters supporting her.
The poll, conducted by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research on behalf of AARP, also reveals that Mr. Biden is struggling with older voters in the state, trailing Mr. Trump by seven percentage points among voters aged 50 and older. However, he is neck and neck with Mr. Trump among voters under 50.
Mr. Trump’s strength in Wisconsin appears to come from solidifying Republican support, with 93 percent of Republicans in a multicandidate field backing him compared to 86 percent of Democrats supporting Mr. Biden. Additionally, 10 percent of Wisconsin Democrats plan to support a third-party candidate.
The poll also indicates that views of Mr. Trump’s time in office are boosting his candidacy, with over half of Wisconsin voters strongly approving of his performance compared to 39 percent who strongly approve of Mr. Biden’s job performance.
Nearly every demographic group surveyed in the poll believes that Mr. Trump won the debate last month, with swing voters over 50 giving him a significant edge in their assessment.
As the 2024 presidential election approaches, these poll results highlight the shifting dynamics in Wisconsin and the challenges facing President Biden as he seeks to secure support in this crucial swing state.
