The deadly game of survival between Hamas and Israel in Gaza has reached a critical point, with the terms of ending the war holding the key to their political futures and grip on power.
Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar faces not only the challenge of securing a ceasefire but also ensuring his own physical survival. Previous negotiations have failed, and the question of how to permanently end the fighting has been delayed until the last stages of the plan outlined by US President Joe Biden.
The transition from talks on a limited hostage-for-prisoner deal to discussions about a permanent ceasefire is expected to be difficult, but crucial for the success of the deal. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has strong domestic reasons for taking the deal step by step, with the release of hostages being the first phase.
However, Hamas is unlikely to release its most politically sensitive hostages without guarantees from Israel. Netanyahu has hinted at keeping options open, including the possibility of resuming fighting until Hamas is eliminated, a stance that some believe his far-right coalition partners will demand.
The success of the deal hinges on Netanyahu’s ability to find alternatives to the elimination of Hamas and how far Hamas leaders are willing to consider them. Netanyahu needs to keep his options open to win support for the deal, while Hamas leaders are likely to seek permanent ceasefire guarantees upfront.
The destruction of Hamas’s military and governing capabilities is a goal for Israel, but the fate of top leaders Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif remains uncertain. Netanyahu is unlikely to end the war until he can frame it as a success, but the challenges are significant.
As the negotiations continue, tens of thousands of displaced Israelis are watching closely, with many like Yarin Sultan expressing skepticism about the ceasefire. The road to a lasting peace in Gaza remains uncertain, with the survival of leaders and the future of the region hanging in the balance.
